End of week 1Mar19. Nice little comeback from both Richemont and AECI – personally still like them both. FTSE/JSE Allshare ( JSE:J203 ) Top5 oversold/overbought according to 14day indicator as follow:
Spending a few minutes on one of the most oversold companies of the week (according to ), namely JSE:TON :
Tongaat Hulett released a trading statement on 22 February 2018, both stating that “Gavin Hudson commenced his duties on 1 February 2019 as the new Chief Executive Officer of Tongaat Hulett with a mandate to expedite an immediate and comprehensive strategic and financial review with the view to stabilising the business, address the debt levels and set the path towards acceptable returns for shareholders” and giving a trading update.
The biggest shock was the fact that they were expecting a MASSIVE drop in both HEPS & EPS . SENS:
“Shareholders are advised that a reasonable degree of certainty exists that Tongaat Hulett’s headline are expected to reflect a decrease of at least 250% compared to the R617 million earned in the twelve months ended 31 March 2018 (“the comparative period”). Consequently, headline per share (“HEPS”) and per share (“EPS”) are both expected to reflect a loss in excess of 803 cents and 927 cents respectively, and a reduction of at least 250% when compared to HEPS of 535 cents and EPS of 618 cents for the comparative period.”
Looking at the long-term graph, I personally think that anybody brave enough to buy now, might just be on a bit of a SUGAR RUSH. The long-term weekly graph, going back to 2003, show that not only are we back to levels last seen 16 years ago, but also that with any further weaknesses, R22.50 could technically still be very possible. We can clearly see that the break in October 2018 was a formal break of the long-term trend, which now puts us in uncharted territory. Both the 50-week and 200-week moving averages are still very aggressively pointing downward and I would caution investors in buying with the HOPE of a recovery. Always remember, that HOPE is not a strategy. This could just be a falling knife.
Wait for results (for year-end 31 March 2019), expected in May 2019, before making any big decisions